State of the Industry: The Shifting Landscape of U.S. Logistics

The Only Constant is Change

Every day, over 75 million packages move through the U.S. logistics network. That number will only grow as eCommerce expands and supply chains become more complex. But the way those packages move—who delivers them, how they’re priced, and what hurdles they face along the way—is changing fast.

The logistics industry is in a state of transition. Some shifts are gradual, like evolving labor agreements and carrier partnerships. Others happen overnight, as seen with new tariffs, changing USPS policies, and surging operational costs.

What does this mean for brands and shippers? Uncertainty, rising costs, and the need for flexibility.

The companies that adapt quickly and build logistics strategies that can shift on demand will be best positioned to weather these changes. Let’s break down the biggest developments shaping the industry today—and what they mean for the future.

1. USPS Ends Discounts for Shipping Consolidators

For years, major shipping consolidators like UPS, DHL eCommerce, and Pitney Bowes have taken advantage of bulk discounts from USPS. This allowed them to offer lower rates to eCommerce brands and retailers while using USPS for final-mile delivery.

But in a major policy shift, USPS has ended those discounts. This move affects over 2 billion packages annually, which accounts for nearly a quarter of USPS’s total volume.

Why is USPS making this change?

The USPS has been operating under the “Delivering for America” plan, a 10-year initiative to cut costs and improve its financial sustainability. Ending consolidator discounts allows USPS to capture more revenue per package and make its own final-mile services more competitive.

What this means for shippers:

• Higher rates for those relying on USPS for budget shipping.

• Consolidators may raise prices or adjust their service models to compensate for lost discounts.

• Small and mid-sized eCommerce brands that depended on consolidators for cost-effective delivery may need to explore new carrier options or fulfillment strategies.

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2. U.S. Tariffs Disrupt International Shipping from China

In February 2025, USPS temporarily stopped accepting packages from China and Hong Kong due to a policy shift that removed the de minimis duty exemption.

Previously, packages under $800 could enter the U.S. duty-free, which allowed many Chinese sellers—especially on platforms like AliExpress, Temu, and Shein—to offer ultra-cheap, direct-to-consumer shipping. Now, all imports are subject to a 10% tariff, drastically changing the economics of low-cost international shipping.

How this impacts brands and shippers:

• Increased costs for direct imports from China

• Potential supply chain disruptions for retailers sourcing products internationally

• Greater reliance on domestic fulfillment options and alternative international suppliers

While USPS has since resumed shipments from China, this event signals a larger trend in U.S.-China trade relations that could lead to more regulatory hurdles for international shipping.

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3. UPS Shifts Final-Mile Strategy, Reducing USPS Dependence

UPS has long used its SurePost service to hand off small packages to USPS for final-mile delivery. However, under a new contract agreement with the Teamsters union, UPS drivers are now handling a larger share of these final-mile deliveries themselves.

Why this matters:

UPS has been re-evaluating its partnerships with other carriers to gain more control over its delivery network. By reducing reliance on USPS, UPS can improve:

• Speed and reliability for last-mile deliveries

• Cost efficiency by keeping packages in-house rather than paying USPS

• Workforce optimization by keeping more deliveries within the Teamsters labor framework

This shift could mean higher costs for shippers using SurePost, as UPS final-mile deliveries are generally priced higher than USPS.

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4. 2025 Carrier Surcharges Introduced—With More to Come

Every year, shipping carriers adjust their surcharges based on fuel costs, labor negotiations, and operational expenses. In 2025, major carriers—including USPS, UPS, FedEx, and DHL—have already introduced new pricing models that will affect shipping costs across the board.

Key surcharge changes:

• Fuel surcharges continue to fluctuate due to rising fuel costs.

• Oversized package fees are increasing to reduce strain on logistics networks.

• Peak season surcharges are expected to hit harder as demand surges in Q4.

Shippers must monitor these changes closely to avoid unexpected cost increases.

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How Shippers and Brands Can Stay Ahead

With so many shifts happening simultaneously, brands and shippers must rethink logistics strategies to stay resilient. Here’s how:

• Diversify Carrier Options: Don’t rely on a single carrier for all shipments. Spread volume across multiple providers to minimize disruptions.

• Build a Flexible Fulfillment Network: Consider regional fulfillment centers or hybrid models that allow you to adjust shipping strategies as needed.

• Keep an Eye on Policy Changes: Tariffs, regulations, and carrier contracts directly affect costs and operations. Staying informed allows for proactive adjustments.

• Leverage Technology for Smarter Logistics: Route optimization, dynamic carrier selection, and automated fulfillment tools can help reduce costs and increase efficiency.

Looking Ahead: The Future is Unpredictable

No one can say with certainty what the next six months will bring to the logistics industry. What is clear, however, is that change is happening fast.

Brands and shippers who embrace flexibility, adapt to shifting costs, and build resilient logistics networks will have a competitive edge in the face of uncertainty.

For now, the key takeaway is simple: Stay informed, stay agile, and be ready to pivot at a moment’s notice.